欧美保护主义暴露了政治短视

欧美保护主义暴露了政治短视

  2月24日的《人民日报》在3版刊发署名文章《搞保护主义的“小聪明”要不得》,认为当前欧美多国支持保护主义的政治人物越来越多,这带来了经济问题,同时也暴露了政治问题。

近段时间,欧美多国贸易保护主义倾向明显上升。投身法国总统大选的极右翼政党国民阵线主席玛丽娜·勒庞把自己的经济政策定义为“机智的保护主义”,宣称要通过竖高墙来恢复“法国制造”的荣耀。与此同时,美国国会中的共和党人正试图建立一套“边境调整”制度,也就是说进口要纳税,而出口免税。

与之形成对比的是,中国政府近来在贸易自由化问题上频频发声,明确表示反对贸易保护主义。1月17日,中国国家主席习近平在达沃斯论坛年会开幕式上发表演讲,强调“我们要坚定不移发展全球自由贸易和投资,在开放中推动贸易和投资自由化便利化,旗帜鲜明反对保护主义。搞保护主义如同把自己关进黑屋子,看似躲过了风吹雨打,但也隔绝了阳光和空气。打贸易战的结果只能是两败俱伤。”

《人民日报》刊发的这篇评论文章认为,支持保护主义的欧美政客是在国家长期利益和自身短期政治行情之间,选择了后者,因为保护主义政策尽管总体将给国家造成净损失,却能通过迎合一小部分人的急切要求,迅速转化为选票或者政治献金。

该文章援引了意大利经济学家的两项学术研究,指出美国政治人物对待保护主义的态度同任期存在紧密关联。宝拉•康科尼、乔万尼•法基尼、毛乌里齐奥•扎纳尔迪等几位意大利学者通过研究1973年到2005年间美国参议院关于贸易问题的29次唱名表决发现,美国参议员在任期最后两年更有可能支持保护主义。另一项研究则发现,美国总统总是在第一任期的最后一年更有可能在世贸组织发起贸易诉讼。


下面英文供翻译参考:

  But Paola Conconi, Giovanni Facchini and Maurizio Zanardi discovered that only certain U.S. senators were less protectionist. Which senators? Precisely those basking in the relative comfort of the first four years of their terms.

“Policymakers’ Horizon and Trade Reforms: The Protectionist Effect of Elections,” examined 29 final roll-call votes on trade liberalization between 1973 and 2005, involving a total of 267 senators. It revealed that senators serving out the final two years of their terms were significantly more protectionist. In other words, once a senator’s political longevity was reduced to that of a House member, he or she started voting like a House member.

Were these sudden conversions to protectionism, respectively 44 and 45 months into Presidential terms, a coincidence? Assuredly not, according to the evidence presented in the second study, the pointedly titled “Suspiciously Timed Trade Disputes.” As the authors elaborate, “Our results confirm that U.S. presidents are more likely to initiate WTO disputes during the last year of their first term”—and that such disputes disproportionately involve politically sensitive industries in states that are up for grabs. They did not find any pattern during Presidents’ second terms, when they no longer faced reelection.

来源:人民日报 

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